April 17, 2025

Welcome to Bull Whisper! This new daily newsletter gives you the scoop on the market—keeping you updated with the latest news and some behind-the-scenes goods.

S&P500 -2.24%   |    BTC +1.18%  |  GOLD +0.97%  |  VIX  +8.37%

*24hr price change as of 9:05am EST

🚨 Need to Know:

🏛️ The Current State of the Market: U.S. stock futures are mixed after a sharp sell-off Wednesday triggered by trade war concerns and Fed Chair Powell’s comments; Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are rebounding, while Dow futures are down 1.5%, dragged by UnitedHealth. Bitcoin is climbing near $84,700, Treasury yields are rising above 4.3%, and markets will close early today ahead of Good Friday.

⚠️ Powell Speaks: Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs could both raise inflation and slow the economy, putting the Fed’s goals of price stability and full employment at odds. Powell said the tariffs will likely hinder progress “for the balance of this year,” prompting Trump to publicly call for his removal and demand rate cuts.

👀 To Keep an Eye On Today: Nvidia shares are rebounding slightly after a steep drop triggered by a $5.5 billion charge related to new U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China, with analysts now projecting an 8–9% hit to its data center revenue. Meanwhile, Netflix is set to report Q1 earnings after the bell, with analysts expecting 12% year-over-year revenue growth and praising the company’s long-term goal to double revenue by 2030 despite broader market uncertainty.

*Reminder: The US stock market is closed tomorrow, April 18th, in observance of Good Friday.

Earnings Reports Today 👇

💡 Today’s Analysis: 

"Don't call it a comeback, I've been here for years."
-Small caps (probably)

There’s been an interesting dynamic playing out over this past week that’s been easy to overlook given all the headline noise in the market at present. 

That dynamic is the relative strength of the Russell 2000 small cap index ($IWM) relative to S&P 500 ($SPY) and the Nasdaq ($QQQ). 

Taking a look at the chart below we can visualize the performance of all 3 indexes since last Friday’s lows.

Since the bottom of that retrace following the big squeeze we saw in the middle of last week, IWM is up +2.62%, which is more than double SPY’s more modest +1.11%, and more than triple QQQ’s +0.72%.

Now, we don’t want to play 5-minute macro and read too much into what’s been a low volume trading week across the board.

However, it is worth pointing out that this relative strength is notable given how how much more dramatic its been sold off since the market peaked back in December, with IWM down nearly twice as much vs SPY and QQQ on a percentage basis since that point.

What I find most notable about this minor shift over the past week is that IWM has historically had a very strong inverse correlation with the US Dollar index (DXY), specifically since 2020. 

As we see below, a weaker dollar has often preceded large run ups in small caps, a dynamic I covered in the Q1 and Q2 theses.

With the dollar now down over 10% from its January highs, the stage may be set for small caps to lead the charge should the market turn bullish into the end of April. 

Should it catch a spark to the upside from here watch for reactions at key levels at the $200 psychological round number resistance mark (this has confluence with the area where we gapped down from post-Liberation Day), the 206.26 50-day SMA which hasn’t been retested since mid-February, and the 200-day SMA all the way back at 217.72.

It’s a situation we’ll be eyeing closely and positioning strategically for in the HighStrike Trading Room over the coming weeks. 

Click here to jump in there and trade with me.

This analysis was written by Shane, HighStrike's lead crypto and derivatives trading instructor.

Markets Are Closed Tomorrow - But We Aren't! 🔥

📣 Special Event

With markets closed for Good Friday, now’s the perfect time to sharpen your edge.

Join 7-figure funded trader Kyle Maring for a FREE live Futures Prop Firm Masterclass — open to the public for one day only.

In this high-impact crash course, Kyle will break down:

✅ What futures are (in plain English)
✅ How to pass a prop firm challenge
✅ Which 3 prop firms are actually worth it
✅ The tools and mindset Kyle uses to stay consistent under pressure

Whether you’re brand new to futures or struggling with strict prop firm rules, this session will deliver the clarity and strategy you need to level up fast.

When: Tomorrow, Friday April 18th, at 10am EST
Where: Zoom (sign up required)

👉 Spots are limited — click here save yours now.

📈 Let’s Dive into the Charts!

Here’s a hand-selected watchlist from HighStrike trading instructor Kyle - a funded futures trader and creator of the BAG Indicator.

What’s on Kyle’s radar this morning? 

Above:
19,225 and 19,546 snow line
20,065 fire line

Below:
18,385 and 18,187 snow line
18,706 tree line
17,866 tree line

Above:
5,347, 5,583 and 5,639 snow line
5,493 tree line

Below:
5,258 and 5,023 snow line
5,113 fire line

🎥 Trading Made Simple – Learn the Right Way

Technical analysis is a way for traders to rationalize the irrationality of price action in the market.

Sage dives into it all - showing you what price action actually means, and how you can use it to gain a statistical advantage.

He explains how he reads technical analysis, and also gives you some examples of previous trades he made - and which components of technical analysis led him to making those trades.

This one-hour long tutorial is the only video you need to build a solid foundation with technical analysis. 👇

🤝 Here are 3 ways we can help you:

You’re a complete beginner and have no idea where to start. Consider joining HighStrike’s Trading School - it’s designed to help you build a trading foundation from the ground up with everything you need to get started trading.

You already trade but you want to improve - and win along the way. Check out HighStrike’s Trading Room - join live trading sessions with HighStrike’s trading instructors. They teach their trading systems in a live format - and they signal trade alerts while they do (exact entries and exits). The result? You learn how to trade and also catch winning trade alerts along the way.

You’re really looking to break into the next level through 1-on-1 coaching. Our Alpha Mastermind program features 1-on-1 coaching sessions where our certified trading instructors diagnose your problems and get you on the right track. This is very selective and has a strict application process. Click here to learn more.

Where can trading take you?

Remember—only you can find out. But we'll be there to help.

What did you think of today's version of Bull Whisper? Drop a quick reply and let us know!

Cheers,

-The HighStrike Team